Objectives

• 1) Identify information needs in an interactive setting wherein invited stakeholders (managers and scientists) will discuss specific floodplain-management challenges and develop conceptual models relating external drivers, climate change projections, management needs and adaptation strategies, and ecosystem responses.
• 2) Apply existing datasets to conceptual models and apply existing datasets and simulation models to the management problems identified in the first component. We will focus on the chain of causality from non-stationary drivers, to abiotic processes, to biotic responses.
• 3) Identify data and modeling gaps, and development of consensus for a way forward to address remaining information gaps.

Overview
The objective of this project is to formalize understanding of science information needs for management of conservation lands on large-river floodplains under non-stationary climatic and land-use conditions. The work is necessary to establish a firm foundation for development of cost-effective, relevant floodplain science to inform management. The work is expressly focused on understanding and addressing managers’ information needs in dynamic floodplain environments. In natural systems floodplains owe their high biodiversity and productivity to their dynamic interactions with rivers, yet because floodplains provide productive soils, level land, and abundant water resources they have been subject to intensive agricultural, urban, and industrial development. Recently, large tracts of Missouri and Mississippi River floodplains have been converted to conservation status through purchase or easements, and questions have arisen about how these lands can best be managed under the joint uncertainties of continued land use and climate change. Managers face uncertainties ranging from site-specific designs for water infrastructure to long-term land-acquisition strategies. In the first component of this project we will identify information needs in an interactive setting wherein invited stakeholders (managers and scientists) will discuss specific floodplain-management challenges and develop conceptual models relating external drivers, climate change projections, management needs and adaptation strategies, and ecosystem responses. Project scientists will then take the conceptual models and apply existing datasets and simulation models to the management problems identified in the first component. We will focus on the chain of causality from non-stationary drivers, to abiotic processes, to biotic responses. Project scientists will report back (15 months later) to engage stakeholders in critical evaluation of the models, identification of data and modeling gaps, and development of consensus for a way forward to address remaining information gaps.